Seafood Horizons

Through active horizon scanning, Seafish aims to support industry in 'being prepared' - improving the awareness of longer term issues and understanding of the implications / options for action.

In this section:

Introduction

Seafood industry risk mapping

Priority risks in review

Food security (ongoing)

Climate change (ongoing)

  • Priority risks 2016
  • Priority risks 2015

Introduction

Horizon scanning is a new and emerging field for our industry. Recent issues such as food authenticity and food crime, prompt the requirement for prior scanning and surveying of risk on the horizon. Horizon scanning and industry intelligence hubs could support this, facilitated by Seafish.

Horizon scanning, but particularly long term strategic thinking, often becomes a lower priority for many seafood businesses dealing with day-to-day competitive realities. However, short and long term risks can have near term consequences for industry. If these risks are considered and understood, this could mean businesses taking very different pathways to 'business as usual' (paths that can address emerging threats and opportunities).

Through active horizon scanning, Seafish aims to support industry in 'being prepared' - improving the awareness of longer term issues and understanding of the implications / options for action.

An industry steering group oversees Seafish horizon work, which aims to generate 'a greater awareness of long term issues, greater understanding of the implications and options for action'.

Outputs are produced by Dr Angus Garrett (Seafish) with input from Seafish colleagues, industry operators and other stakeholders. Feedback is welcomed (Tel: 0131 524 8697, email a_garrett@seafish.co.uk)

Note: outputs combine data, opinions and conjecture and are position papers at the time of press. It is important to bear in mind that evidence today might suggest trends that turn out to be very different in the longer term.

Seafood industry risk mapping

Seafish horizon work involves regularly sweeping the seafood horizon and maintaining live risk maps for the seafood industry. Seafood risk developments are considered to be those that can cause significant industry impact, either as positive (opportunities) or negative (threats) impacts.

In 2015, existing and emerging risks - with an impact on the UK seafood industry - over a 10 year horizon were identified. Over 190 risk items were identified.

The risk items are mapped as a set of 'risk families', in which specific risks are related to broader risks. These risks are 'heat-mapped' according to strength of risk signal (How likely is the risk?) i.e. whether we are getting a weak (green), medium (amber), or strong (red) signal over the next few years.

From those risks showing a strong signal (likely risks), industry operators and other stakeholders identify priority risks: those that represent a high impact for industry from their perspective (How impactful is the risk?).

Priority risk areas (more likely, higher impact risks) for industry operators are placed under consideration for deep review.

Priority risks in review

Priority risks are subject to deep review. Reviews investigate the key drivers of the priority risk, major industry impacts arising taking into account the wider protein context, and suggest industry and Seafish response. Key drivers, in each case, include longer-term economic developments, trade developments, population developments, increased scrutiny, regulatory developments, and media influence.

Systemic global risk developments (food security, climate change) represent long term strategic challenges for the seafood industry and amplify specific risks and impacts (threats and opportunities).

Full details of all risks, industry impacts and suggested actions are in the full reviews, available below.

Climate change (ongoing)

Food security (ongoing)

Priority risks 2016

Brexit (initial overview)

Future seafood supply (review underway)

Priority risks 2015

Product integrity

Export trades

New NGO priorities

Fish as food (UK seafood consumption)

Risks reviews before 2015

For reviews produced before 2015 please contact Angus Garrett (a_garrett@seafish.co.uk)

Feedback on reviews is welcome. Please use the feedback form.